http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/ ...explorations in complex adaptive systems... Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:29:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2766 alexgolubev Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:16:33 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2766 I don't think it's nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we'll know that the "market" has stopped functioning correctly - demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed's 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn't heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools. I don’t think it’s nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we’ll know that the “market” has stopped functioning correctly – demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed’s 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn’t heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2753 Rafe Furst Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:35:17 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2753 Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn't the classification bogus to begin with? It's leads to circular logic. "We couldn't predict because there were exogenous factors at play." So what's an exogenous factor? "Oh, that's any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do". Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn’t the classification bogus to begin with? It’s leads to circular logic. “We couldn’t predict because there were exogenous factors at play.” So what’s an exogenous factor? “Oh, that’s any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do”.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2748 alexgolubev Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:15:06 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2748 They didn't tweak their "batting average" using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL. They didn’t tweak their “batting average” using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/ ...explorations in complex adaptive systems... Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:29:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/ ...explorations in complex adaptive systems... Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:29:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2766 alexgolubev Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:16:33 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2766 I don't think it's nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we'll know that the "market" has stopped functioning correctly - demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed's 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn't heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools. I don’t think it’s nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we’ll know that the “market” has stopped functioning correctly – demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed’s 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn’t heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2753 Rafe Furst Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:35:17 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2753 Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn't the classification bogus to begin with? It's leads to circular logic. "We couldn't predict because there were exogenous factors at play." So what's an exogenous factor? "Oh, that's any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do". Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn’t the classification bogus to begin with? It’s leads to circular logic. “We couldn’t predict because there were exogenous factors at play.” So what’s an exogenous factor? “Oh, that’s any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do”.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2748 alexgolubev Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:15:06 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2748 They didn't tweak their "batting average" using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL. They didn’t tweak their “batting average” using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2766 alexgolubev Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:16:33 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2766 I don't think it's nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we'll know that the "market" has stopped functioning correctly - demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed's 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn't heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools. I don’t think it’s nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we’ll know that the “market” has stopped functioning correctly – demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed’s 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn’t heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/ ...explorations in complex adaptive systems... Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:29:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2766 alexgolubev Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:16:33 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2766 I don't think it's nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we'll know that the "market" has stopped functioning correctly - demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed's 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn't heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools. I don’t think it’s nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we’ll know that the “market” has stopped functioning correctly – demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed’s 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn’t heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2753 Rafe Furst Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:35:17 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2753 Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn't the classification bogus to begin with? It's leads to circular logic. "We couldn't predict because there were exogenous factors at play." So what's an exogenous factor? "Oh, that's any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do". Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn’t the classification bogus to begin with? It’s leads to circular logic. “We couldn’t predict because there were exogenous factors at play.” So what’s an exogenous factor? “Oh, that’s any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do”.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2748 alexgolubev Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:15:06 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2748 They didn't tweak their "batting average" using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL. They didn’t tweak their “batting average” using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2753 Rafe Furst Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:35:17 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2753 Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn't the classification bogus to begin with? It's leads to circular logic. "We couldn't predict because there were exogenous factors at play." So what's an exogenous factor? "Oh, that's any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do". Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn’t the classification bogus to begin with? It’s leads to circular logic. “We couldn’t predict because there were exogenous factors at play.” So what’s an exogenous factor? “Oh, that’s any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do”.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/ ...explorations in complex adaptive systems... Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:29:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2766 alexgolubev Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:16:33 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2766 I don't think it's nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we'll know that the "market" has stopped functioning correctly - demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed's 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn't heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools. I don’t think it’s nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we’ll know that the “market” has stopped functioning correctly – demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed’s 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn’t heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2753 Rafe Furst Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:35:17 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2753 Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn't the classification bogus to begin with? It's leads to circular logic. "We couldn't predict because there were exogenous factors at play." So what's an exogenous factor? "Oh, that's any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do". Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn’t the classification bogus to begin with? It’s leads to circular logic. “We couldn’t predict because there were exogenous factors at play.” So what’s an exogenous factor? “Oh, that’s any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do”.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2748 alexgolubev Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:15:06 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2748 They didn't tweak their "batting average" using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL. They didn’t tweak their “batting average” using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2748 alexgolubev Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:15:06 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2748 They didn't tweak their "batting average" using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL. They didn’t tweak their “batting average” using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/ ...explorations in complex adaptive systems... Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:29:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2766 alexgolubev Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:16:33 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2766 I don't think it's nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we'll know that the "market" has stopped functioning correctly - demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed's 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn't heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools. I don’t think it’s nearly as important to be able to predict ends of bubbles. I think Sornette is trying to get publicity. what i think is important is getting some sort of track record for identifying when we ARE in a bubble. Not all bubbles are bad, but at least we’ll know that the “market” has stopped functioning correctly – demand is sloping the wrong way. another tool for the Fed’s 100 year old arsenal for making sure the ship isn’t heading for the rocks. And hopefully the academia and professional managers alike will start listening to these tools.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2753 Rafe Furst Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:35:17 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2753 Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn't the classification bogus to begin with? It's leads to circular logic. "We couldn't predict because there were exogenous factors at play." So what's an exogenous factor? "Oh, that's any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do". Okay, but if there is no such thing as an exogenous factor isn’t the classification bogus to begin with? It’s leads to circular logic. “We couldn’t predict because there were exogenous factors at play.” So what’s an exogenous factor? “Oh, that’s any factor that makes it hard to predict what the system is going to do”.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2748 alexgolubev Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:15:06 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2748 They didn't tweak their "batting average" using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL. They didn’t tweak their “batting average” using that classification. It was their own attempt at figuring out the limitation of LPPL.

]]> http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/04/bubble-trouble-in-little-china/#comment-2738 Rafe Furst Mon, 07 Sep 2009 18:36:09 +0000 http://emergentfool.com/?p=2111#comment-2738 If it was ever useful, the exogenous/endogenous dichotomy is certainly less so as time goes on. That is, there is no "outside the system", and to ignore information because one chooses to classify it as exogenous is an arbitrary choice at best and a self-serving choice in practice. Track records speak for themselves. If it was ever useful, the exogenous/endogenous dichotomy is certainly less so as time goes on. That is, there is no “outside the system”, and to ignore information because one chooses to classify it as exogenous is an arbitrary choice at best and a self-serving choice in practice. Track records speak for themselves.

]]>