Dishonesty is the Best Policy
Are you bluffing enough or too much? At work, at home, with friends? Peter principle? Good guys finish last? As in poker, bluffing the bluff wins games. Now we have The Game and various pickup artists passing on the knowledge (big goofy hat required):
” …we present an evolutionary model that shows overconfidence actually maximizes individual fitness and populations will tend to become overconfident, as long as the resources at stake during conflicts exceed twice the cost of competition. This is because overconfident individuals make more challenges when there is uncertainty about the strength of opponents (and thus the outcome of conflicts), while less confident individuals shy away from many conflicts they would win. Where the value of a prize is at least twice the cost of trying, overconfidence is the best strategy. The model suggests that the conditions under which humans would have evolved to have a “rational” unbiased view of their own capabilities are exceedingly rare, and it helps to explain why resource-rich environments can paradoxically create more conflict. Moreover, the fact that overconfident populations are evolutionarily stable may be one reason why overconfidence persists today in politics, business, and finance, even if it causes occasional disasters.”
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0909/0909.4043.pdf
Related posts:
- Policy Implications of the Ascetic Meme
- Game Theory and Military Planning
- The Logical Necessity of Group Selection
