The Emergent Fool » acebailey

Allocating Scarce Medical Resources

acebailey — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 04:08:14 +0000

Whether it is general resources after the implementation of a universal health care scheme or specific resources such as flu vaccine in the early stages of a pandemic, there will always be instances of scarcity. Who gets the resources? Youngest first? Sickest first? First in? Lottery winners? Socially useful people? This article proposes the Complete Lives System.

Purple Balls of Death

acebailey — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 20:14:41 +0000

Imagine a lottery machine filled with one million mostly white balls and a few purple ones bouncing around. Each purple ball represents a MicroMort, a one in a million chance of you dying in the next year. Each year one ball pops out. If a purple one pops out you will die in the next year. By visiting here you can calculate how many purple balls you have in your machine based on your gender, age etc. As a 46 year old white male I have 3400 purple balls of death. I believe by adjusting my lifestyle I can virtually reach in and take some of those balls out…for example 260 of my balls are death by suicide. Nothing a tequila a day can’t prevent.

More Environmental Tradeoffs

More Environmental Tradeoffs

Coolest Bike in Town!

acebailey — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 19:31:12 +0000

Mike Ritchey of mountain bike fame is helping Rwandan coffee farmers cut the transport time (increasing their selling price) from the field to the washing stations by providing them with custom “Coffee Bikes” on a micro loan basis. These bikes replace the wooden bikes (including wheels) that they have been using. You can now own one of only 200 limited edition coffee bikes coming to the U.S. Be uber-cool when you ride down to the local java hole.

Micro-lending Is Not a Silver Bullet

Micro-lending Is Not a Silver Bullet

Splitting the Difference

acebailey — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 17:56:28 +0000

Rafe Furst and I were discussing my predisposition for staying in the cheapest hotel within walking distance of the hotel I actually play poker in despite having the resources to pay for the more expensive properties. The money I save just stays in a fungible heap of other money and isn’t really earmarked for anything.

I posit that the hotel I stay in (let’s call it the Imperial Palace) though low end by Vegas standards is nicer than the normal living quarters of 75% of the world’s population. Given that I am in the room to sleep and shower, do I really need a nicer place? Is it karmically bad to stay in a nicer place that I’m not really using?

We came up with the following idea. On my next trip I will stay at the IP again but donate half the difference between its cost and the cost at Caesar’s Palace to a charity for the homeless. So now my frugality has a point.

The accommodation scenario is easy. It gets more complex when I decide between Subway meatball subs and the meatball appetizer at Rao’s…

Thoughts?

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Global Warming Solved for 10 cents per Person

acebailey — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:29:15 +0000

Stephen Salter wants to build a fleet of ships that will churn up seawater to create whiter, fluffier clouds that will reflect more sunlight away from the sea surface. The cost for the first 300 ships that should turn the clock back: $600 million.

Other ideas include spraying sulfur dioxide 65,000 feet up through a fleet of Zeppelins and firing 840 billion ceramic frisbees into orbit to block the sun’s rays. But this article also suggests that a rich “Greenfinger” could unilaterally do some Geo-Engineering without world consent and with disasterous consequences.

Even Assuming Global Warming, We Shouldn't Worry?

Even Assuming Global Warming, We Shouldn't Worry?

Cool Solar Power

acebailey — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:34:09 +0000

On a recent trip to the CalExpo site I was impressed to see rows and rows of solar panels supported over the parking lot. Instead of taking up valuable real estate it shades your car and generates 540kW.

Check out this even more interesting way of generating solar power at Cool Earth Solar. It is massively scalable and can compete on price with traditional sources.

Game Theory and Military Planning

Game Theory and Military Planning

Cool Time Based Map of Job Creation/Destruction

acebailey — Tue, 26 May 2009 21:04:22 +0000

Here The 2009 map evokes nuclear strike graphics from 80’s films! Very clear that it is easier to destroy an economy than build one.

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Drug Decriminalization: Portugal's Experience

acebailey — Tue, 05 May 2009 17:57:52 +0000

Portugal decriminalized all drugs in 2001 (yes that includes cocaine and heroin). And “ none of the nightmare scenarios touted by preenactment decriminalization opponents—from rampant increases in drug usage among the young to the transformation of Lisbon into a haven for “drug tourists”—has occurred.”

While “postdecriminalization usage rates have remained roughly the same or even decreased slightly when compared with other EU states, drug-related pathologies — such as sexually transmitted diseases and deaths due to drug usage — have decreased dramatically.”

The U.S should take note of this and take it one step further by pushing the power to make drug laws to the state level like gambling. Some states will legalize drugs altogether taxing sales and driving the prices down, putting the drug lords in Mexico and elsewhere out of business. Other states will be more strict to start and can amend later based on results in the liberal states. Obama should give mass pardons for small drug crimes and empty the prisons of otherwise productive members of society.

Halting the Spread of Swine Flu – Assume You Are Infected

acebailey — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 11:56:29 +0000

With flu the incubation period ranges from 24 hours to four days, meaning people often are infectious before they have symptoms. Unless already feeling ill, the majority of people assume they haven’t been infected and behave accordingly. Perhaps, instead, they should act as though they are infected until proven wrong. If a person knows they are infected they will certainly not shake hands or kiss. They will wear a mask (masks are more effective in preventing transmission than in preventing reception of the virus) when they need to go into public areas. They will be more fastidious with this mindset than by assuming they are not sick. (It is not suggested that people stay home from work as that cure might be more harmful than the disease.) This interruption behavior could drastically reduce the transmission rates.

Changing the mindset could change the outcome.

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One Company, Two Approaches to Cancer

acebailey — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 04:16:56 +0000

Dendreon has developed two interesting avenues in the fight against prostate cancer. The first is a therapeutic vaccine that in just released Phase 3 study results increased survival time by 4 months. The second is a small molecule that induces apoptosis in prostate cancer cells.

Provenge stimulates T-Cell proliferation and theses cells lyse the cancer cells. Although the NY Times reports it is “proof of concept” that cancer vaccines can and do work it doesn’t seem to be particularly far in the research space from mainstream work with the concerns pointed out by Rafe here and Daniel here. Perhaps since it is the first vaccine it will lead to work that will change the 4 months to 4 decades.

Dendreon’s Small Molecule Program is another step away. They have identified an ion channel that is present in 100% of prostate cancers, 71% of breast cancers, 93% of colon cancers and 80% of lung cancers and hardly or not detected in the corresponding normal human tissues. Dendreon has synthesized small molecule agonists that induce cell death by activating the ion channel and interfering with cell growth, migration and division.

So many other treatments leave cancer cells alive and able to mutate. These agonists, however, are devastating. Without the equivalent of a functioning stomach and reproductive system it is unlikely these cancer cells could mutate and evolve their way around this attack. Perhaps this success can get more funding to more innovative research projects.