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<channel>
	<title>The Emergent Fool &#187; Happiness</title>
	<atom:link href="http://emergentfool.com/category/happiness/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://emergentfool.com</link>
	<description>...explorations in complex adaptive systems...</description>
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		<title>Why Crowdfunding Changes Everything</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2013/03/18/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2013/03/18/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Mar 2013 16:56:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Adjacent Possible]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alternative Institutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cooperation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crowdsourcing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Incentives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scarcity / Abundance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Entrepreneurship]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=4208</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I have a <a href="http://unreasonable.is/author/rafe/" target="_blank">new column on Unreasonable.is</a>, which is where this five part series is published:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-1/ " target="_blank">Part 1</a>: The JOBS Act will unlock $30 Trillion in long-term investment capital that can legally be invested in startups and small businesses through crowdfunding portals.</li>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-2/ " target="_blank">Part 2</a>: Currently, investors have a stranglehold on the fundraising process. Once the JOBS Act is implemented, there will be a leveling of the playing field in which entrepreneurs and citizen-investors control the process.</li>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-3/ " target="_blank">Part 3</a>: Investment crowdfunding enables individuals to invest in companies they are passionate about, and in so doing, outperform professional investors.</li>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-4/ " target="_blank">Part 4</a>: “Do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life or do you want to come with me and change the world?”</li>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-5/">Part 5</a>: There is a second revolution coming: investing directly in people. When it collides with crowdfunding, this will create a perfect storm….</li>
</ul>
<div></div>
<div></div>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2012/04/20/the-economics-of-abundance/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Economics of Abundance'>The Economics of Abundance</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 4'>Investing in Superstars, part 4</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2012/07/12/revenue-sharing/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Revenue Sharing'>Revenue Sharing</a></li>
</ol></p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2012/04/20/the-economics-of-abundance/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Economics of Abundance'>The Economics of Abundance</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 4'>Investing in Superstars, part 4</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2012/07/12/revenue-sharing/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Revenue Sharing'>Revenue Sharing</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have a <a href="http://unreasonable.is/author/rafe/" target="_blank">new column on Unreasonable.is</a>, which is where this five part series is published:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-1/ " target="_blank">Part 1</a>: The JOBS Act will unlock $30 Trillion in long-term investment capital that can legally be invested in startups and small businesses through crowdfunding portals.</li>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-2/ " target="_blank">Part 2</a>: Currently, investors have a stranglehold on the fundraising process. Once the JOBS Act is implemented, there will be a leveling of the playing field in which entrepreneurs and citizen-investors control the process.</li>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-3/ " target="_blank">Part 3</a>: Investment crowdfunding enables individuals to invest in companies they are passionate about, and in so doing, outperform professional investors.</li>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-4/ " target="_blank">Part 4</a>: “Do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life or do you want to come with me and change the world?”</li>
<li><a href="http://unreasonable.is/opinion/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything-part-5/">Part 5</a>: There is a second revolution coming: investing directly in people. When it collides with crowdfunding, this will create a perfect storm….</li>
</ul>
<div></div>
<div></div>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2012/04/20/the-economics-of-abundance/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Economics of Abundance'>The Economics of Abundance</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 4'>Investing in Superstars, part 4</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2012/07/12/revenue-sharing/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Revenue Sharing'>Revenue Sharing</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://emergentfool.com/2013/03/18/why-crowdfunding-changes-everything/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Investing in Superstars, part 4</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2011 21:30:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Alternative Institutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cooperation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Incentives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Innovation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interventions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scarcity / Abundance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Entrepreneurship]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trust]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=3729</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>[NOTE: I updated this post with more detailed examples]</p>
<p>Background: <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/26/investing-in-superstars-part-3/">part 3</a>, <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/25/investing-in-superstars-part-2/">part 2</a> and <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2009/10/30/investing-in-superstars/">part 1</a>.</p>
<p>In the interview with Jon Gunn in Part 3, I mention that I&#8217;ve been thinking of what &#8220;version 2&#8243; of the Personal Investment Contract might look like.  Here&#8217;s the model:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Investment Amount </strong>- Same as before, intended to give the individual some time to pursue their passion (or figure out what that is) without having to worry about how to support themselves.</li>
<li><strong>Maximum Return </strong>- The cumulative total amount that the investor can receive as return on their investment.  If and when this amount is reached, the contract is over.</li>
<li><strong>Annual Exclusion </strong>- The amount of annual income the entrepreneur can make without having to share any of it with the investor.</li>
<li><strong>Minimum Revenue Share </strong>- The minimum percentage of gross income the entrepreneur returns to the investor after deducting the Annual Exclusion.</li>
</ol>
<p>Following are some examples of various different career paths and uses for a PIC.  Click&#8230;</p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/10/30/investing-in-superstars/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars'>Investing in Superstars</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/26/investing-in-superstars-part-3/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 3'>Investing in Superstars, part 3</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2012/07/12/revenue-sharing/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Revenue Sharing'>Revenue Sharing</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[NOTE: I updated this post with more detailed examples]</p>
<p>Background: <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/26/investing-in-superstars-part-3/">part 3</a>, <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/25/investing-in-superstars-part-2/">part 2</a> and <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2009/10/30/investing-in-superstars/">part 1</a>.</p>
<p>In the interview with Jon Gunn in Part 3, I mention that I&#8217;ve been thinking of what &#8220;version 2&#8243; of the Personal Investment Contract might look like.  Here&#8217;s the model:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Investment Amount </strong>- Same as before, intended to give the individual some time to pursue their passion (or figure out what that is) without having to worry about how to support themselves.</li>
<li><strong>Maximum Return </strong>- The cumulative total amount that the investor can receive as return on their investment.  If and when this amount is reached, the contract is over.</li>
<li><strong>Annual Exclusion </strong>- The amount of annual income the entrepreneur can make without having to share any of it with the investor.</li>
<li><strong>Minimum Revenue Share </strong>- The minimum percentage of gross income the entrepreneur returns to the investor after deducting the Annual Exclusion.</li>
</ol>
<p>Following are some examples of various different career paths and uses for a PIC.  Click on the thumbnails to expand the graphs.  These are modeled with various &#8220;reasonable&#8221; assumptions but if you want to experiment with how it might apply to you or under different assumptions, <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/7038870/Accelerating%20Possibilities%20%28PUBLIC%29/PIC%202.0%20Calculator%20v1.2.numbers">here&#8217;s the spreadsheet</a>.</p>
<p>Example 1: <strong>Entrepreneur<a href="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Entrepreneur-Graph.jpg"><img class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-3748" title="Entrepreneur Graph" src="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Entrepreneur-Graph-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="120" height="120" /></a><br />
</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Investment Amount: <strong>$50K</strong></li>
<li>Maximum Return: <strong>$2M</strong> (i.e. 40x )</li>
<li>Annual Exclusion: <strong>$100K</strong></li>
<li>Minimum Revenue Share: <strong>25%</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Example 2: <strong>Social Innovator<a href="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Social-Innovator-Graph.jpg"><img class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-3749" title="Social Innovator Graph" src="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Social-Innovator-Graph-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="120" height="120" /></a><br />
</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Investment Amount: <strong>$100K</strong></li>
<li>Maximum Return:<strong> $1M</strong> (i.e. 10x)</li>
<li>Annual Exclusion: <strong>$50K</strong></li>
<li>Minimum Revenue Share: 3<strong>0% </strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Example 3: <strong>Small Biz Expansion<a href="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Small-Biz-Expansion-Graph.jpg"><img class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-3750" title="Small Biz Expansion Graph" src="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Small-Biz-Expansion-Graph-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="120" height="120" /></a><br />
</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Investment Amount: <strong>$300K</strong></li>
<li>Maximum Return: <strong>$1.8M</strong> (i.e. 6x)</li>
<li>Annual Exclusion: <strong>$0</strong></li>
<li>Minimum Revenue Share: 4<strong>0%</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Example 4: <strong>Career Change<a href="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Career-Change-Graph.jpg"><img class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-3751" title="Career Change Graph" src="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Career-Change-Graph-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="120" height="120" /></a><br />
</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Investment Amount: <strong>$1M</strong></li>
<li>Maximum Return: <strong>$4M</strong> (i.e. 4x)</li>
<li>Annual Exclusion: <strong>$200K</strong></li>
<li>Minimum Revenue Share: <strong>60%</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Example 5: <strong>Investor<a href="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Investor-Graph.jpg"><img class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-3752" title="Investor Graph" src="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Investor-Graph-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="120" height="120" /></a><br />
</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Investment Amount: <strong>$3M</strong></li>
<li>Maximum Return: <strong>$300M</strong> (i.e. 100x)</li>
<li>Annual Exclusion: <strong>$250K</strong></li>
<li>Minimum Revenue Share: <strong>100%</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Several things to note: the Minimum Revenue Share is calculated from the gross income (all sources) as reported on your tax return; you get to deduct the Annual Exclusion amount <strong>before</strong> figuring and paying taxes.   If your effective income tax rate is 40% and you quit your job &#8212; using the Investment Amount to live off of &#8212; you&#8217;ve just stretched out your runway by 40% (i.e. you don&#8217;t pay taxes on the money someone invests in you).  Finally, this contract gives you incentive to pay more than the Minimum Revenue Share to your investors, since the more you return, the quicker you reach the Maximum and end the contract.</p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/10/30/investing-in-superstars/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars'>Investing in Superstars</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/26/investing-in-superstars-part-3/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 3'>Investing in Superstars, part 3</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2012/07/12/revenue-sharing/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Revenue Sharing'>Revenue Sharing</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>8</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Investing in Superstars, part 3</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/26/investing-in-superstars-part-3/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/26/investing-in-superstars-part-3/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Aug 2011 15:27:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Alternative Institutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Creativity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Incentives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Innovation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interventions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scarcity / Abundance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Capital]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=3710</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>For the background to this post, start with <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/25/investing-in-superstars-part-2/" target="_blank">part 2</a> and <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2009/10/30/investing-in-superstars/" target="_blank">part 1</a>.  The follow up is <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/">part 4</a>.</p>
<p>I get a lot of questions from folks who are interested in learning more about Personal Investment Contracts and so I felt it was time to synthesize some of the most common ones and give you some answers.</p>
<p><strong>Who is the first person you invested in?</strong></p>
<p>A film maker named <a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0348197/" target="_blank">Jon Gunn</a>.</p>
<p><strong>What is your relationship with Jon outside of this investment?</strong></p>
<p>He is my brother-in-law, and a former business partner of mine in an instructional DVD company we co-founded with Phil Gordon.  I&#8217;ve also invested in a couple of his independent films.</p>
<p><strong>Why did you invest in Jon directly?</strong></p>
<p>I have been a big believer in his talent for a long time.  None of the ventures I just mentioned though have made me any return on my investment.  Phil had been suggesting for a while that if we simply invested directly&#8230;</p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 4'>Investing in Superstars, part 4</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/10/30/investing-in-superstars/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars'>Investing in Superstars</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/25/investing-in-superstars-part-2/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 2'>Investing in Superstars, part 2</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the background to this post, start with <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/25/investing-in-superstars-part-2/" target="_blank">part 2</a> and <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2009/10/30/investing-in-superstars/" target="_blank">part 1</a>.  The follow up is <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/">part 4</a>.</p>
<p>I get a lot of questions from folks who are interested in learning more about Personal Investment Contracts and so I felt it was time to synthesize some of the most common ones and give you some answers.</p>
<p><strong>Who is the first person you invested in?</strong></p>
<p>A film maker named <a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0348197/" target="_blank">Jon Gunn</a>.</p>
<p><strong>What is your relationship with Jon outside of this investment?</strong></p>
<p>He is my brother-in-law, and a former business partner of mine in an instructional DVD company we co-founded with Phil Gordon.  I&#8217;ve also invested in a couple of his independent films.</p>
<p><strong>Why did you invest in Jon directly?</strong></p>
<p>I have been a big believer in his talent for a long time.  None of the ventures I just mentioned though have made me any return on my investment.  Phil had been suggesting for a while that if we simply invested directly in Jon&#8217;s future earnings, we&#8217;d do better than investing in his projects.</p>
<p><strong>Why is the contract only three pages if it&#8217;s a lifetime deal?</strong></p>
<p>Basically it comes down to this:</p>
<ol>
<li>The contract is there simply to remind both parties of what was agreed to at the time of signing.</li>
<li>Inevitably circumstances change for one or both parties and it will be necessary to amend the contract.</li>
<li>If both parties are committed to maintaining a strong relationship, then amendment is easy and actually leads to <strong>strengthening</strong> the underlying relationship.</li>
<li>On the flip side, if one or both parties are stuck in the past and are not looking for the continued win-win, it ends in lose-lose (i.e. litigation).</li>
<li>If you can&#8217;t trust each other to honor the spirit of the agreement when conflicts arise, is a longer contract going to make matters better or worse?</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>Are there legal and tax consequences you had to consider?</strong></p>
<p>Yes.  It turns out a three-page contract is way more complex than a 30-pager.  If you are considering doing anything like this and want to deviate from the <a href="http://emergentfool.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Personal-Investment-Contract.pdf" target="_blank">contract template</a>, I recommend contacting <a href="http://www.kineticlaw.com/" target="_blank">Orlando Medina</a> who created the contract and vetted all of these issues.  There are very few lawyers like Orlando who are both legal virtuosos <strong>and</strong> business-creative rolled into one.</p>
<p><strong>Why not create a fund for Personal Investment Contracts?</strong></p>
<p>Most investment funds are explicitly meant to <strong>remove</strong> the personal relationships that a PIC relies on.  While not explicitly a PIC fund, the <a href="http://dowser.org/interview-kim-scheinberg-on-how-presumed-abundance-turns-angel-investing-into-life-long-collaboration/" target="_blank">Presumed Abundance</a> fund is based on the premise of <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfnWlkEQwX0" target="_blank">investing in people and relationships</a>.</p>
<p>Another approach that might work is to attach a fund to an incubator like TechStars or a fellowship program like the TED Fellows.  The incubator then acts as a proxy for that personal relationship: both investor and investee feel a sense of responsibility to the third party, which can also act as an neutral arbiter if problems arise.</p>
<p><strong>Have you made an equity investment in anyone else besides Jon?</strong></p>
<p>Yes, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0445730/" target="_blank">Michael Keller</a>.  He was a founding partner in the instructional video company (along with myself, Phil and Jon).  Michael and I have been friends for years and I had also invested in one of his movies.</p>
<p><strong>Do you only invest in film makers, I thought you were into technology and social entrepreneurship?</strong></p>
<p>The film connection is somewhat coincidental.  Michael is working on a startup in stealth mode right now.  I&#8217;ve talked with a few close friends who are tech/social entrepreneurs about investing in them but the conditions just haven&#8217;t been right.</p>
<p><strong>Would you invest in me?</strong></p>
<p>Not unless we&#8217;ve known each other for several years and have been through some experiences together that have tested our relationship.  We need to know that we&#8217;ve got each other&#8217;s back, and are committed to working out problems that arise.</p>
<p><strong>What&#8217;s more important to you as an investor, trust or talent?</strong></p>
<p>No question: trust.  I truly believe that &#8220;talent&#8221; is within us all, and by removing obstacles (financial and otherwise) we can unlock that talent.  That said, not everyone is at the point in their lives where lack of money is the real obstacle.  In fact, very few people are, even though we&#8217;d all like to believe otherwise.</p>
<p><strong>So if money isn&#8217;t the real issue for most people, what is?</strong></p>
<p>It&#8217;s different for every single person, but what I see most often is that there is a tricky balance between the drive/confidence to achieve lofty goals on the one hand, and the courage/commitment to personal development, growth and learning on the other hand.</p>
<p><strong>How have your personal investments turned out?</strong></p>
<p>From an ROI perspective for me as the investor it&#8217;s too early to tell (it&#8217;s been two years since the first one).  But from an interpersonal standpoint, my friendships with Jon and Michael, it&#8217;s been incredibly positive for me so far.  To give you insight into Jon&#8217;s experience, we recorded this:<br />
<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/7038870/Accelerating%20Possibilities%20%28PUBLIC%29/Jon%20Gunn%20PIC%20Interview%208.23.11.mov" target="_blank"></a></p>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
<p><strong>Interview with Jon Gunn</strong>:  <object style="width: 300px; height: 20px;" classid="clsid:02bf25d5-8c17-4b23-bc80-d3488abddc6b" width="300" height="20" codebase="http://www.apple.com/qtactivex/qtplugin.cab#version=6,0,2,0"><param name="autoplay" value="false" /><param name="src" value="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/7038870/Accelerating%20Possibilities%20%28PUBLIC%29/Jon%20Gunn%20PIC%20Interview%208.23.11.mov" /><param name="align" value="top" /><embed style="width: 300px; height: 20px;" type="video/quicktime" width="300" height="20" src="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/7038870/Accelerating%20Possibilities%20%28PUBLIC%29/Jon%20Gunn%20PIC%20Interview%208.23.11.mov" align="top" autoplay="false"></embed></object></p>
</div>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/28/investing-in-superstars-part-4/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 4'>Investing in Superstars, part 4</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/10/30/investing-in-superstars/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars'>Investing in Superstars</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/25/investing-in-superstars-part-2/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Investing in Superstars, part 2'>Investing in Superstars, part 2</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://emergentfool.com/2011/08/26/investing-in-superstars-part-3/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
<enclosure url="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/7038870/Accelerating%20Possibilities%20%28PUBLIC%29/Jon%20Gunn%20PIC%20Interview%208.23.11.mov" length="16221738" type="video/quicktime" />
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What is Fear?</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2011/03/29/what-is-fear/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2011/03/29/what-is-fear/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Mar 2011 21:54:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Causality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cognition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emotion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interventions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Invisible Etiology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Self-Fullfilling Prophecy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trust]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=3586</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Based on an informal assessment and polling I&#8217;ve done recently, here&#8217;s what we fear:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Identity</strong>
<ul>
<li>LOSING ONESELF
<ul>
<li>Death / Pain / Insignificance</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>BEING WRONG
<ul>
<li>Self-Exploration / Failure / Change</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>INAUTHENTICITY
<ul>
<li>Being Found Out / Self-Expression / Lying</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>Control</strong>
<ul>
<li>EMOTIONAL
<ul>
<li>Power / Anticipation / Fear-Itself</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>OTHERS
<ul>
<li>Intimacy / Just Doing It / (Lack of) Freedom</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>THE UNCONTROLLABLE
<ul>
<li>Disaster / Crisis / Unknown-Unknowns</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>Authority</strong>
<ul>
<li>RIGHTS
<ul>
<li>Being Unworthy / Unmet Expectation / Meaninglessness</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>MORALITY
<ul>
<li>Unfairness / Inequality / Injustice</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>RULES
<ul>
<li>Doing it Wrong / Shame / Guilt</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Each of us has a unique profile of what fear is depending on how we related to various value dimensions (intrinsic, extrinsic and systemic).  For me the scariest are: (1) Unknown-Unknowns (2)  Power (3) Being Wrong (4) Self-Expression (5) Injustice</p>
<p>How about you?</p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2010/12/09/the-age-of-radical-transparency/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Age of Radical Transparency'>The Age of Radical Transparency</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/02/25/individual-vs-systemic-causation/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Individual vs. Systemic Causation'>Individual vs. Systemic Causation</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/03/16/placebos-work-even-if-you-dont-believe-in-them/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Placebos Work Even If You Don&#039;t Believe in Them'>Placebos Work Even If You Don&#039;t Believe in Them</a></li>
</ol></p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2010/12/09/the-age-of-radical-transparency/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Age of Radical Transparency'>The Age of Radical Transparency</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/02/25/individual-vs-systemic-causation/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Individual vs. Systemic Causation'>Individual vs. Systemic Causation</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/03/16/placebos-work-even-if-you-dont-believe-in-them/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Placebos Work Even If You Don&#039;t Believe in Them'>Placebos Work Even If You Don&#039;t Believe in Them</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica} p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica; min-height: 14.0px} -->Based on an informal assessment and polling I&#8217;ve done recently, here&#8217;s what we fear:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Identity</strong>
<ul>
<li>LOSING ONESELF
<ul>
<li>Death / Pain / Insignificance</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>BEING WRONG
<ul>
<li>Self-Exploration / Failure / Change</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>INAUTHENTICITY
<ul>
<li>Being Found Out / Self-Expression / Lying</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>Control</strong>
<ul>
<li>EMOTIONAL
<ul>
<li>Power / Anticipation / Fear-Itself</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>OTHERS
<ul>
<li>Intimacy / Just Doing It / (Lack of) Freedom</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>THE UNCONTROLLABLE
<ul>
<li>Disaster / Crisis / Unknown-Unknowns</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>Authority</strong>
<ul>
<li>RIGHTS
<ul>
<li>Being Unworthy / Unmet Expectation / Meaninglessness</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>MORALITY
<ul>
<li>Unfairness / Inequality / Injustice</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>RULES
<ul>
<li>Doing it Wrong / Shame / Guilt</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Each of us has a unique profile of what fear is depending on how we related to various value dimensions (intrinsic, extrinsic and systemic).  For me the scariest are: (1) Unknown-Unknowns (2)  Power (3) Being Wrong (4) Self-Expression (5) Injustice</p>
<p>How about you?</p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2010/12/09/the-age-of-radical-transparency/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Age of Radical Transparency'>The Age of Radical Transparency</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/02/25/individual-vs-systemic-causation/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Individual vs. Systemic Causation'>Individual vs. Systemic Causation</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/03/16/placebos-work-even-if-you-dont-believe-in-them/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Placebos Work Even If You Don&#039;t Believe in Them'>Placebos Work Even If You Don&#039;t Believe in Them</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://emergentfool.com/2011/03/29/what-is-fear/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Getting Things Undone</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2011/03/09/getting-things-undone/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2011/03/09/getting-things-undone/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2011 03:20:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Alternative Institutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crowdsourcing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interventions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Networks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=3545</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Have you ever felt overwhelmed by your inbox, meeting schedule, and list of phone calls to make or return?  Have you ever wished you could include a wide audience in your one-on-one communications so that we could all benefit from wisdom of the crowd?  If so, you might like my new policy for all business-related communications.</p>
<p><strong>Email</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Non-private: instead use <a href="http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=group_118630858205899&#38;ap=1">Accelerating Possibilities</a> FB Group.  (and I don&#8217;t do FB private messages).</li>
<li>Private: I read every email but only respond if I feel it&#8217;s truly a private matter and I&#8217;m interested in responding.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Phone &#38; Video Chat</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Non-private: Create a <a href="http://www.vokle.com/">Vokle Event</a> and post the subject of the discussion to the FB group above.  If I can make it, I will, but hopefully others will join you regardless.</li>
<li>Private: Email me your phone number and I will put you on my list of people to call when I have time.  I can&#8217;t promise if/when I will call you though.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>In Person Meetings</strong>&#8230;</p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/08/21/what-obama-needs-to-do/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: What Obama Needs to Do'>What Obama Needs to Do</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/10/29/want-to-influence-financial-crisis-policy-debate/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Want to Influence Financial Crisis Policy Debate?'>Want to Influence Financial Crisis Policy Debate?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/12/18/your-seat-at-the-table/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Your Seat at the Table'>Your Seat at the Table</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica} p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica; min-height: 14.0px} p.p3 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica; color: #f90a17} li.li1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica} span.s1 {text-decoration: underline ; color: #224fae} ol.ol1 {list-style-type: decimal} ul.ul1 {list-style-type: disc} ul.ul2 {list-style-type: circle} -->Have you ever felt overwhelmed by your inbox, meeting schedule, and list of phone calls to make or return?  Have you ever wished you could include a wide audience in your one-on-one communications so that we could all benefit from wisdom of the crowd?  If so, you might like my new policy for all business-related communications.</p>
<p><strong>Email</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Non-private: instead use <a href="http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=group_118630858205899&amp;ap=1">Accelerating Possibilities</a> FB Group.  (and I don&#8217;t do FB private messages).</li>
<li>Private: I read every email but only respond if I feel it&#8217;s truly a private matter and I&#8217;m interested in responding.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Phone &amp; Video Chat</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Non-private: Create a <a href="http://www.vokle.com/">Vokle Event</a> and post the subject of the discussion to the FB group above.  If I can make it, I will, but hopefully others will join you regardless.</li>
<li>Private: Email me your phone number and I will put you on my list of people to call when I have time.  I can&#8217;t promise if/when I will call you though.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>In Person Meetings</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Non-private: Try me at <a href="http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=group_165226823524108&amp;ap=1">Hub LA Open Fridays</a> 2pm-5pm.  I also sometimes pick a public spot and time period, and invite anyone from Accelerating Possibilities FB Group to join me.</li>
<li>Private: see &#8220;Non-private&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Exceptions</span></strong></p>
<ol>
<li>If I&#8217;m requesting a meeting/discussion with you and you&#8217;d prefer it happen a certain way, I&#8217;m happy to follow your desires or policy.</li>
<li>Organizations I&#8217;m in a fiduciary relationship with (e.g. as investor, board member, etc.).</li>
<li>Purely social visits/calls/emails.</li>
</ol>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/08/21/what-obama-needs-to-do/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: What Obama Needs to Do'>What Obama Needs to Do</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/10/29/want-to-influence-financial-crisis-policy-debate/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Want to Influence Financial Crisis Policy Debate?'>Want to Influence Financial Crisis Policy Debate?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/12/18/your-seat-at-the-table/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Your Seat at the Table'>Your Seat at the Table</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://emergentfool.com/2011/03/09/getting-things-undone/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What Poker Taught Me About Life</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/10/what-poker-taught-me-about-life/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/10/what-poker-taught-me-about-life/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Feb 2011 16:13:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poker]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=3498</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p></p>
<ol>
<li>&#8220;It depends&#8230;&#8221;</li>
<li>There&#8217;s a difference between a good decision and a good outcome</li>
<li>There&#8217;s a difference between being broke and having no money</li>
<li>There&#8217;s a difference between a winning person and a winning player</li>
<li>It&#8217;s all one long game</li>
<li>The long run is longer than you think</li>
<li>Inaction can be very risky behavior</li>
<li>Embrace the beauty of uncertainty</li>
<li>Objectivity is the only thing that&#8217;s impossible</li>
<li>Whatever your &#8220;leak&#8221;, that&#8217;s what will get you in the end</li>
<li>Luck and skill are two sides of the same coin</li>
<li>Material wealth is a manifestation of interior wealth</li>
<li>There&#8217;s time enough for counting&#8230; when the dealing&#8217;s done</li>
<li>There&#8217;s no difference between value and values</li>
<li>Your word is mightier than the law</li>
<li>Win-win beats win-lose any day</li>
<li>Trust everyone, and don&#8217;t count the cards</li>
</ol>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/02/16/parrondos-paradox-and-poker/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Parrondo&#039;s Paradox and Poker'>Parrondo&#039;s Paradox and Poker</a></li>
</ol></p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/02/16/parrondos-paradox-and-poker/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Parrondo&#039;s Paradox and Poker'>Parrondo&#039;s Paradox and Poker</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- li.li1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica} ol.ol1 {list-style-type: decimal} --></p>
<ol>
<li>&#8220;It depends&#8230;&#8221;</li>
<li>There&#8217;s a difference between a good decision and a good outcome</li>
<li>There&#8217;s a difference between being broke and having no money</li>
<li>There&#8217;s a difference between a winning person and a winning player</li>
<li>It&#8217;s all one long game</li>
<li>The long run is longer than you think</li>
<li>Inaction can be very risky behavior</li>
<li>Embrace the beauty of uncertainty</li>
<li>Objectivity is the only thing that&#8217;s impossible</li>
<li>Whatever your &#8220;leak&#8221;, that&#8217;s what will get you in the end</li>
<li>Luck and skill are two sides of the same coin</li>
<li>Material wealth is a manifestation of interior wealth</li>
<li>There&#8217;s time enough for counting&#8230; when the dealing&#8217;s done</li>
<li>There&#8217;s no difference between value and values</li>
<li>Your word is mightier than the law</li>
<li>Win-win beats win-lose any day</li>
<li>Trust everyone, and don&#8217;t count the cards</li>
</ol>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/02/16/parrondos-paradox-and-poker/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Parrondo&#039;s Paradox and Poker'>Parrondo&#039;s Paradox and Poker</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/10/what-poker-taught-me-about-life/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>6</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Most Important TV Show in America</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2010/03/26/the-most-important-tv-show-in-america/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2010/03/26/the-most-important-tv-show-in-america/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Mar 2010 15:20:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Education]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Epidemiology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interventions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Invisible Etiology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nutrition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obesity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TED]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=2950</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Remember <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2010/02/22/ted-prize-wish-teach-every-child-about-food/">Jamie Oliver&#8217;s TED Prize Wish</a>?  Well tonight is the prime time season premiere of his <a href="http://abc.go.com/watch/jamie-olivers-food-revolution/250784/254757/episode-101" target="_blank">Food Revolution</a> show on ABC.  The Huffington Post called Undercover Boss the most subversive show in America, and I can&#8217;t disagree.  But in terms of importance to the future of America (and by extension every country which imports American TV and culture), Food Revolution I can&#8217;t imagine a more important show.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not just the lives of individuals who eat crap (which is most of the country, frankly, even though they have no idea how toxic what they are eating is).  It&#8217;s the happiness and achievement potential of today&#8217;s youth.  It&#8217;s the emperor with no clothes at the center of the healthcare debate.  And it&#8217;s a lynchpin for economic recovery and sustainability.</p>
<p>Watch the premiere, and spread the word&#8230;</p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/06/18/is-hunger-really-a-problem-in-u-s/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Is Hunger Really a Problem in U.S.?'>Is Hunger Really a Problem in U.S.?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/08/the-problem-with-processed-foods/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Problem With Processed Foods'>The Problem With Processed Foods</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2010/12/10/biological-immortality/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Biological Immortality'>Biological Immortality</a></li>
</ol></p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/06/18/is-hunger-really-a-problem-in-u-s/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Is Hunger Really a Problem in U.S.?'>Is Hunger Really a Problem in U.S.?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/08/the-problem-with-processed-foods/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Problem With Processed Foods'>The Problem With Processed Foods</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2010/12/10/biological-immortality/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Biological Immortality'>Biological Immortality</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Remember <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2010/02/22/ted-prize-wish-teach-every-child-about-food/">Jamie Oliver&#8217;s TED Prize Wish</a>?  Well tonight is the prime time season premiere of his <a href="http://abc.go.com/watch/jamie-olivers-food-revolution/250784/254757/episode-101" target="_blank">Food Revolution</a> show on ABC.  The Huffington Post called Undercover Boss the most subversive show in America, and I can&#8217;t disagree.  But in terms of importance to the future of America (and by extension every country which imports American TV and culture), Food Revolution I can&#8217;t imagine a more important show.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not just the lives of individuals who eat crap (which is most of the country, frankly, even though they have no idea how toxic what they are eating is).  It&#8217;s the happiness and achievement potential of today&#8217;s youth.  It&#8217;s the emperor with no clothes at the center of the healthcare debate.  And it&#8217;s a lynchpin for economic recovery and sustainability.</p>
<p>Watch the premiere, and spread the word&#8230;</p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/06/18/is-hunger-really-a-problem-in-u-s/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Is Hunger Really a Problem in U.S.?'>Is Hunger Really a Problem in U.S.?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/09/08/the-problem-with-processed-foods/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The Problem With Processed Foods'>The Problem With Processed Foods</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2010/12/10/biological-immortality/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Biological Immortality'>Biological Immortality</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Violence on the Decline</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2009/07/25/violence-on-the-decline/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2009/07/25/violence-on-the-decline/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 2009 14:55:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Culture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Epidemiology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interventions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Invisible Etiology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Self-Fullfilling Prophecy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Self-Fulfilling Prophecy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=1852</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>From Monday&#8217;s Washington Post:</p>
<blockquote><p>The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2009071902154.html" target="_blank">Full article is here</a>, in which more sensible police approaches are given credit for the decline.</p>
<p><span id="more-1852"></span>While it&#8217;s probably true that police deserve a lot of credit, it helps to remember that <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2008/11/04/invisible-etiology/">violence is a virus</a> and it spreads from person to person.  The more violence people see around them, the more violence that breeds.  And the converse is also true.  The exogenous factors are hard to suss out, but my suspicion is that the general rise in wealth and well-being in the world is the main factor.  This is consistent with the counterintuitive but real fact that <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2008/06/05/ted-talk-steven-pinker/">violence has been in decline for centuries</a> and we currently live in the most peaceful time ever.</p>
<p>Kevin points out:</p>
<blockquote><p>I often mention the availability</p></blockquote><p>&#8230;</p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/12/02/what-stops-terrorism/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: What Stops Terrorism'>What Stops Terrorism</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/11/04/invisible-etiology/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Invisible Etiology'>Invisible Etiology</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2007/09/09/is-obesity-contagious/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Is Obesity Contagious?'>Is Obesity Contagious?</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From Monday&#8217;s Washington Post:</p>
<blockquote><p>The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2009071902154.html" target="_blank">Full article is here</a>, in which more sensible police approaches are given credit for the decline.</p>
<p><span id="more-1852"></span>While it&#8217;s probably true that police deserve a lot of credit, it helps to remember that <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2008/11/04/invisible-etiology/">violence is a virus</a> and it spreads from person to person.  The more violence people see around them, the more violence that breeds.  And the converse is also true.  The exogenous factors are hard to suss out, but my suspicion is that the general rise in wealth and well-being in the world is the main factor.  This is consistent with the counterintuitive but real fact that <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2008/06/05/ted-talk-steven-pinker/">violence has been in decline for centuries</a> and we currently live in the most peaceful time ever.</p>
<p>Kevin points out:</p>
<blockquote><p>I often mention the availability bias when quoting statistics on crime.  If you ask people, they&#8217;ll say crime has gotten worse&#8211;IMO because media has become consistently better at shoving stories of violence into our brains.  But the statistics say otherwise.</p>
<p>This is especially poignant when you talk about child abduction by strangers.  People think this is a much worse problem (and why you don&#8217;t see kids playing in their neighborhoods).  But I believe the statistics show the incidence is not any different than it was when we were growing up.</p></blockquote>
<p>Which brings us to the <a href="http://emergentfool.com/2007/04/29/dangerous-media/">role of media in propagating myths</a> and creating self-fulfilling prophecies.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m curious, what <strong>are</strong> the statistics on abductions and predatory crime towards children now versus 30 years ago?</p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/12/02/what-stops-terrorism/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: What Stops Terrorism'>What Stops Terrorism</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/11/04/invisible-etiology/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Invisible Etiology'>Invisible Etiology</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2007/09/09/is-obesity-contagious/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Is Obesity Contagious?'>Is Obesity Contagious?</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>3</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Don&#039;t Eat That Marshmallow!</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2009/05/30/dont-eat-that-marshmallow/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2009/05/30/dont-eat-that-marshmallow/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 May 2009 17:00:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cognition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Education]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Incentives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TED]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://emergentfool.com/?p=1673</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Short but brilliant TED talk by Joachim de Posada.  I love the economic point he makes at the end.</p>
<p></p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/01/08/red-pill-or-blue-pill/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Red Pill or Blue Pill?'>Red Pill or Blue Pill?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/03/20/behavioral-economics-with-dan-ariely/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Behavioral Economics With Dan Ariely'>Behavioral Economics With Dan Ariely</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/04/08/notes-from-ted/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Notes from TED'>Notes from TED</a></li>
</ol></p>


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<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/03/20/behavioral-economics-with-dan-ariely/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Behavioral Economics With Dan Ariely'>Behavioral Economics With Dan Ariely</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/04/08/notes-from-ted/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Notes from TED'>Notes from TED</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Short but brilliant TED talk by Joachim de Posada.  I love the economic point he makes at the end.</p>
<p><object width="560" height="340"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/M0yhHKWUa0g&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=1&#038;"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/M0yhHKWUa0g&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=1&#038;" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"></embed></object></p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/01/08/red-pill-or-blue-pill/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Red Pill or Blue Pill?'>Red Pill or Blue Pill?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2009/03/20/behavioral-economics-with-dan-ariely/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Behavioral Economics With Dan Ariely'>Behavioral Economics With Dan Ariely</a></li>
<li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2008/04/08/notes-from-ted/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Notes from TED'>Notes from TED</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Try This Experiment</title>
		<link>http://emergentfool.com/2007/02/16/try-this-experiment/</link>
		<comments>http://emergentfool.com/2007/02/16/try-this-experiment/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Feb 2007 18:44:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Rafe Furst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Happiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Infection]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rafefurst.wordpress.com/2007/02/16/try-this-experiment/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>For one full day, whenever you are in physical proximity to another person, be they friend or stranger, look them in the eyes, hold their gaze and smile.</p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/08/the-ai-box-experiment/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The AI-Box Experiment'>The AI-Box Experiment</a></li>
</ol></p>


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/08/the-ai-box-experiment/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The AI-Box Experiment'>The AI-Box Experiment</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For one full day, whenever you are in physical proximity to another person, be they friend or stranger, look them in the eyes, hold their gaze and smile.</p>


<p>Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://emergentfool.com/2011/02/08/the-ai-box-experiment/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: The AI-Box Experiment'>The AI-Box Experiment</a></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
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