Predicting the 2008 Presidential Electio... I am a fan of prediction markets.   They have typically done much better than polls at predicting the outcome of elections.  Why?  Here’s a thought experiment.  Consider who you think is going to win the election (not who you want to win).  Now consider that I was going to bet you $10,000 of your...

TED Global 2009 Registration Open... For those who liked all of the TED talks that I posted earlier this year, you might want to attend TED Global 2009.  Guaranteed to blow your...

Who's Curious About the Financial C... So as not to waste my expensive schooling, I still keep up with economics as a hobby.  I don’t expect other people to generally share this interest, but it occurred to me that the current financial crisis is an excellent example of what happens when a complex adaptive system experiences a shock.  Is...

Go Forth and Reify... reify |ˈrēəˌfī| verb ( -fies, -fied) [ trans. ] formal make (something abstract) more concrete or real Imagine if an alien landed on Earth to study modern society and you were assigned the task of being its local guide.  You get to the subject of money and the alien is perplexed.  What is money?  Is...

Don't Cop Out on Knightian Uncertai... I apologize for the posting lull. I actually spotted an issue than I wanted to address a few weeks ago, but I’ve been pondering how to approach it.  It’s pretty complicated and subtle.  I even ran a couple of drafts by Rafe to refine my thinking.  So please bear with me. As I’ve...

Follow Up on the Ascetic Meme... Jay makes a thoughtful comment to my last post on the Ascetic Meme.  While I’m pleased that I was able to affect Jay enough to write such a comment, I’m dismayed that the effect was not the one I intended.  I don’t mean to be either insulting or hostile to the vast majority of regular...