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Stuart Kauffman has a concept called the Adjacent Possible Buy Penisole Online Without Prescription, which I find incredibly useful in understanding the world.  Simply put, if you think of the space of possibilities from the present moment forward and just concentrate on those that are achievable today...

The Process

Imagine a multiverse, infinitely infinite.  There's just infinity.  Or if you prefer, nothing.   There's no space, no time, no matter, no energy.  There's no structure whatsoever, and nothing "in" any of the universes that make up the multiverse.  it's not even clear whether these individual universes...

Synthesis of Complexity Theory

As careful readers of this blog will note, I've been obsessed with Alex Ryan's visualization of the way new levels of organization come into being (e.g. atoms --> molecules --> cells, etc).  In an attempt to complement and extend his model, here's a visualization of how I think of the various concepts...

Balance the past with Zeitgeist

Please watch the Zeitgeist Addendum, and RIP: Remix Manifesto Kafka gave us The Metamorphosis.  We have the power to realize our own humility.  Being wrong is irrelevant if you learn from your mistakes and prevent systemic risk from such errors.  How can we be so content with our wisdom if we...

Evolutionary Game Theory and Archaeology

As a mathematical evolutionary theorist, I use abstract methods to investigate how the structure of an evolutionary process determines whether social behaviors like cooperation can be successful. So I was excited to learn over the holidays (from David Carballo, archaeologist and family friend of my partner)...

“Social Entrepreneurship has Complexity Written All Over It”

That's the title and conclusion of this paper by Jeffrery Goldstein et al which was presented at  this talk at the Skoll Foundation International Social Innovation Conference 2009.  Here's a slide from that talk that I like: If you like the theme of "Social Entrepreneurship, Systems Thinking and...

Convergence

As readers of my blog posts know, I talk a lot about evolutionary systems, the formal structure of cooperation, the role of both in emergence of new levels of complexity, and I sometimes use cellular automata to make points about all these things and the reification of useful models (here's a summary of how...

Inoculating Against the Anti-Vaccine Meme

The debate over vaccination is raging (c.f. Wired article) and it smacks of one of those conundrums that is unlikely to get resolved by scientific inquiry.  I offer the following hypothesis and a way out of the dilemma. Hypothesis: Vaccination is something that is good at the societal level but bad at the...

Must Read Paper On Overconfidence

Via the indispensable Tyler Cowen, a new paper from Johnson and Fowler explores whether overconfidence is, in fact, adaptive. They show that it it is under some very reasonable assumptions.  They model competition for resources as a two-player game and then analyze the evolutionary dynamics of populations...

What Obama Needs to Do

The old philosophical theory says that reason is conscious, can fit the world directly, is universal (we all think the same way), is dispassionate (emotions get in the way of reason), is literal (no metaphor or framing in reason), works by logic, is abstract (not physical) and functions to serve our...

The Diamond Rule

We all know the Golden Rule: do unto others as you would have them do unto you.  TED Prize Wish winner, Karen Armstrong, even laudably proposed that a Charter for Compassion based on the observation that all three Abrahamic traditions (Christianity, Judaism and Islam) have the Golden Rule at their core. I...

Centmail: Fighting Spam With E-Mail Postage Stamps

Who wants to pay for email? You just might. Many people have suggested that adding a nominal cost to e-mail would serve to fight spam by rendering it largely unprofitable. With Centmail, some Yahoo researchers propose adding a penny postage stamp to each e-mail, representing a penny donation to charity....

Game Theory and Military Planning

In "Game Theory: Can a Round of Poker Solve Afghanistan's Problems?" Major Richard J.H. Gash creates a simple two player game to show how game theory can be used to influence military planning. Gash's game involves two villages in Afghanistan with the choice to either support the "Coalition" or support the...

Cancer "Progress" Report

Despite hundreds of billions of dollars appropriated for cancer research, as well as the efforts of thousands of the world's best minds, progress in preventing or curing cancer has been almost non-existent. I find this unacceptable. We should be doing better. We need to be doing better. So what's the...

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Yesterday, from the Director of the National Cancer Institute, addressing one of the two largest cancer research conferences of the year: NCI commenced a series of workshops that began to bring aspects of the physical sciences to the problem of cancer. We discussed how physical laws governing short-range and...

Climate Change and Human Nature

First, let me say how honored I am to be contributing to this blog and to the complex systems web community in general. A New York Times Magazine article raises an issue I've been thinking a lot about lately. If you are, as I am, a scientist concerned about global climate change, you may find yourself...

If Rafe Were In Charge: Major Medical Edition

Kevin started an interesting discussion that included a thoughtful proposal for the problem of major medical care costs risk mitigation.  You should read that here before reading my proposal below. Part 1: Major Medical Annuities. Federally mandated/funded (similar to SSI/Medicare), with a specific...

Asymmetry Is the Root of All Value

It's not hard these days to find vignettes like this one (starting at minute 1:45) that describe a microeconomic chain of events that give you a glimpse into the recessionary dynamic.  I think it's a good starting point to explain my personal theory of why asymmetry is the root of all value (economic and...

The Vanguard of Science: Bonnie Bassler

The import of this talk goes way beyond the specific and stunning work that Bassler and her team have done on quorum sensing.  In my mind, this is the prototype for good biological...

Tribes

Tribes are hot. Kevin has referred more than once to the famous Dunbar number for limits on optimal human tribe size. One of my favorite books recently is Seth Godin's book on leadership, called -- you guessed it -- Tribes. Yesterday I heard a great talk by David Logan, co-author of Tribal...

How to Change the Climate in 3 Years

Oh, and re-grow the rainforrest, strengthen the social, political and economic climate, save endangered species and increase biodiversity and resilliance all at the same time without any...

Red Pill or Blue Pill?

As we approach the inauguration of a new leader who trying to be truly post-partisan, I think Jonathan Haidt's TED brilliant talk is apropos: [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs41JrnGaxc] Haidt posits a sobering reality that we will all have to overcome if Obama is to achieve his goal: Our Righteous...

The Conflict Between Complex Systems and Reductionism

The following is a recent paper by Henry Heng published in JAMA.  I've linked concepts mentioned in the paper to corresponding explications from this blog. JAMA. 2008;300(13):1580-1581. The Conflict Between Complex Systems and Reductionism Henry H. Q. Heng, PhD Author Affiliations: Center for...

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