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The Process

Imagine a multiverse, infinitely infinite.  There's just infinity.  Or if you prefer, nothing.   There's no space, no time, no matter, no energy.  There's no structure whatsoever, and nothing "in" any of the universes that make up the multiverse.  it's not even clear whether these individual universes...

Switching Government Service Providers

Ever wish you could reinvent the entire systems of government you live under without starting a costly war, revolution or having to win an election?  No?  Well, Patri Friedman has (wondered, that is).  And so has a growing number of seasteaders, ordinary folks (and the occasional PayPal billionaire).  Or...

A Theory of Scalability

One of the hidden themes of The Feast this past week has been how to scale successful social ventures.  This has been on my mind a lot recently as I have been working informally with both Self Enhancement, Inc. (SEI) and Decision Education Foundation (DEF) on this puzzle.  SEI is extremely successful...

Memory is Flexible for Imagination

Just not for "remembering" things.  We are not memory machines, we are learning machines: “Reconsolidation research has helped foster a growing sense that the flexibility of memory might be functional—an advantage rather than a bug in the brain. Reconsolidation might be how we update our store of...

(Price) Inflation Is All In Your Mind

I apologize for the non-existent blogging the past few weeks.  I've been really busy with my new company.  I'm going to try blogging more short items rather than my trademark essays in the hope that reduced barrier to entry will result in more supply. First up is a provocative post by the ever-interesting...

A Meditation on Biological Modeling

This is not my meditation, it was created by Cellucidate: [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jZsEUMeU94] What's really great about it, in addition to the message itself, is that it uses visual language to make its point.  I love what Cellucidate is doing (check out the video on their home page)....

Cancer as a Complex Adaptive System

Heng, et al recently published a review paper that brings together and touches on many different aspects of cancer complexity.  I thought this an opportunity to selectively quote the paper and organize the quotes loosely around various complex systems concepts they relate to.  I'm curious whether this...

Chasing the Dragon

Kevin just posted about a great article by Felix Salmon in Wired.  I underlined three quotes in my reading of it: "Correlation trading has spread through the psyche of the financial markets like a highly infectious thought virus." (Tavakoli) "...the real danger was created not because any given trader...

But I Was Probably Right About Climate Models

I try not to practice false modesty (those of you who know me well probably just did a spit take at that understatement).  So while I try to stand up and admit when I'm wrong, I also like to stand up and point out where I'm right. It shouldn't be a surprise to any of you that I came to the conclusion that...

Society According to Kevin: Part 1

How Our Moral Compasses Fail Us From the comments on my Introduction to this series, it appears I have discovered a controversial topic. Good. My first objective will be to illustrate why we cannot rely on  moral compasses to guide society. After some thought, I have decided to break the topic of moral...

Society According to Kevin: Introduction

I was recently having a conversation with a mutual friend of Rafe's and mine.  Like the two of us, he's quite smart, well educated, and socially aware.  I respect his thinking a lot. However, during the course of this conversation, it became clear to me that he holds what I think of as an overly moralistic...

Going Meta on "Autonomy"

Continuation of: Focusing on "Autonomy" I've been trying to reconcile Rafe's an my views on this topic.  I actually think we agree on the broad themes related to our argument over "autonomy".  From my perspective, it seems like the only real disagreement is on the implications for humans. As a higher...

Focusing on "Autonomy"

Continuation of: Superfoo Rafe and I had a great chat on the phone today about Superfoos.  I think we agreed that there will be multiple instances of agents emerging in the level immediately above humans but there is always a single top-level network in local space.  I think we also agreed that the...

Superfoo

Response to Superorganism as Terminology. I was actually about to post something about terminology, so I'm glad this came up. It's just so difficult to choose words to describe concepts that have little precedent, without going to the extreme of overloading on the one end (e.g. "organism") or the other...

Response to "Superorganism Considered Harmful"

This is a response to Kevin's post responding to my post. Rafe makes an analogy to cells within a multicellular organism. How does this support the assertion that there will only be one superorganism and that we will need to subjugate our needs to its own?  Obviously, there are many multicellular organisms....

Group Selection Meme on the Rise

This is from a recent Seed Magazine article.  Click on the image to enlarge...

Incidentalomas

An incidentaloma according to wikipedia is "a tumor (-oma) found by coincidence (incidental) without clinical symptoms or suspicion."  The provocative NY Times article below suggests that indolent tumors (i.e. ones that do not need treatment) may come and go as a normal part of life.  With better detection...

The Conflict Between Complex Systems and Reductionism

The following is a recent paper by Henry Heng published in JAMA.  I've linked concepts mentioned in the paper to corresponding explications from this blog. JAMA. 2008;300(13):1580-1581. The Conflict Between Complex Systems and Reductionism Henry H. Q. Heng, PhD Author Affiliations: Center for...

Required Reading on Financial Crisis

Remember Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis about 80s Wall Street excess?  Well, he has a terrific article on some guys who saw the subprime meltdown coming and bet heavily on it.  It's great narrative and a reminder that whenever someone's model departs substantially from reality, there is an arbitrage...

Predicting the 2008 Presidential Election

I am a fan of prediction markets.   They have typically done much better than polls at predicting the outcome of elections.  Why?  Here's a thought experiment.  Consider who you think is going to win the election (not who you want to win).  Now consider that I was going to bet you $10,000 of your hard...

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