Rafe Furst - The Emergent Fool

The Emergent Fool

Universal Constants...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Adjacent Possible, Causality, Epistemology, Infinity, Invisible Etiology, Quantum, Science 2.0 on 12 15th, 2011 | View Comments

To get the theory of relativity Einstein held the speed of light constant and let time and space vary. These days cosmologists are holding the infinity of the universe as constant and letting its density and expansion/contraction rate vary. In some sense quantum mechanics is about holding the observer...

How is Social Enterprise?...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Innovation, Social Entrepreneurship on 12 10th, 2011 | View Comments

A friend recently commented to me that he was really excited about a new business he was about to undertake, but then added almost apologetically, “I know it’s not much of a social enterprise.” This seemed odd to me because in my experience Jason is as...

Education 2.0...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Creativity, Education, Innovation, Interventions, Social Entrepreneurship, TED on 11 25th, 2011 | View Comments

In what turned out to be the most popular TED talk of all time, Ken Robinson asked us to wake up and smell the coffee: our system of education is stuck in the Industrial Revolution where it was invented. Moreover, it’s killing creativity, crushing spirits, and preparing students, not for success and...

Practical Artificial Intelligence...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Agency, Artificial Intelligence, Cognition on 10 20th, 2011 | View Comments

There’s an old saying in computer science circles that when we have no idea how to make a piece of software do something smart we call it “Artificial Intelligence” but once it’s solved we look back with 20-20 hindsight and say it was “Software Engineering”. A computer...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Uncategorized on 09 21st, 2011 | View Comments

By now you’ve no doubt heard about the allegations against me in a Federal civil suit regarding Full Tilt Poker. Because of the seriousness of the allegations I’m not able to comment at all about the pending case, much as I would like to. From a moral, personal and interpersonal perspective I...

Investing in Superstars, part 4...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Cooperation, Happiness, Incentives, Innovation, Interventions, Investing, Psychology, Scarcity / Abundance, Social Capital, Social Entrepreneurship, Trust on 08 28th, 2011 | View Comments

[NOTE: I updated this post with more detailed examples] Background: part 3, part 2 and part 1. In the interview with Jon Gunn in Part 3, I mention that I’ve been thinking of what “version 2″ of the Personal Investment Contract might look like. Here’s the model: Investment Amount...

Investing in Superstars, part 3...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Creativity, Happiness, Health, Incentives, Innovation, Interventions, Investing, Psychology, Scarcity / Abundance, Social Capital on 08 26th, 2011 | View Comments

For the background to this post, start with part 2 and part 1. The follow up is part 4. I get a lot of questions from folks who are interested in learning more about Personal Investment Contracts and so I felt it was time to synthesize some of the most common ones and give you some answers. Who is the...

Innovation as Moral Leverage...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Culture, Innovation, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Psychology, Trust on 05 10th, 2011 | View Comments

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed, citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” (Margaret Mead) “Be the change you want to see in this world” (Gandhi) There is an idea virus within American culture that has the power to destroy....

Complex Adaptive Monetary Policy...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Adjacent Possible, Alternative Institutions, Asymmetry, Economics, Government, Incentives, Interventions, Non-linearity, Scarcity / Abundance, Social Capital, Stability on 05 9th, 2011 | View Comments

Complex Adaptive Monetary Policy (CAMP) is, in essence, a reconciliation of Keynes’ top-down view of macroeconomics with Hayek’s bottom up view. The particular details of the proposed policy below are not as important as the recognition of the fundamental forces at play and empirical evidence...

What is Fear?...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Agency, Causality, Cognition, Emotion, Happiness, Health, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Psychology, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Trust on 03 29th, 2011 | View Comments

Based on an informal assessment and polling I’ve done recently, here’s what we fear: Identity LOSING ONESELF Death / Pain / Insignificance BEING WRONG Self-Exploration / Failure / Change INAUTHENTICITY Being Found Out / Self-Expression / Lying Control EMOTIONAL Power...

Personal Cosmology...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Uncategorized on 03 24th, 2011 | View Comments

In some measure or other, progress is always a transcendence of what is obvious. (Alfred North Whitehead, Process & Reality) Science tells us that there are Four Fundamental Forces: Electromagnetic, Strong Nuclear, Weak Nuclear, and Gravity. The Reality that Science helps us perceive consists of...

How to Be a Good Representative...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Agency, Cooperation, Government, Management, Trust on 03 23rd, 2011 | View Comments

Are you someone who has been given (and accepted) responsibility for someone else’s well-being? Maybe you are an elected official? A board member? A parent? A friend? If so, you may resonate with the following realization I just had about my own successes and failures in the role of...

Big Mind, Big Heart...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Uncategorized on 03 19th, 2011 | View Comments

Do you have 15 minutes to be enlightened? Ready for more? The Process More...

Getting Things Undone...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Crowdsourcing, Happiness, Interventions, Social Networks on 03 9th, 2011 | View Comments

Have you ever felt overwhelmed by your inbox, meeting schedule, and list of phone calls to make or return? Have you ever wished you could include a wide audience in your one-on-one communications so that we could all benefit from wisdom of the crowd? If so, you might like my new policy for all...

Mutual Disclosure Agreement...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Creativity, Culture, Innovation, Investing, Mutual Knowledge, Scarcity / Abundance, Social Capital, Trust on 03 9th, 2011 | View Comments

When I was in Silicon Valley in the 90′s the joke was that you couldn’t go on a first date without having your love-interest sign a Non-Disclosure Agreement; after all, they might be working on a competitive venture. These days when I’m hit with the “I’d love to talk to you...

The Secret to a Great TED Talk...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Infection, Invisible Etiology, Memes, Psychology, TED on 03 8th, 2011 | View Comments

Recently I learned from two separate people how the Obama campaign won the 2008 presidential election and it’s fascinating. Basically everyone who was a part of it learned the “campaign narrative” structure and delivered their personal message to spread the gospel: The Story of Me: why...

Being Present...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Uncategorized on 03 8th, 2011 | View Comments

I’m practicing being present all the time. It’s really difficult for people like me who are analytically-inclined. I’m reminded of my improv teacher in college who told us at the beginning of the class: “This class is really hard for Stanford students because it requires turning...

Scientific Singularity?...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Cognition, Complexity, Epistemology, Limits of Knowledge, Models, Science, Science 2.0, Singularity, Technology on 02 27th, 2011 | View Comments

A couple of weeks ago Kevin and I went around on the topic of whether or not science is “broken”. We came to the point of agreeing that we have different basic assumptions of what constitutes “utility”. And because of this, while we could agree that each of our arguments made...

Investing in Superstars, part 2...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Incentives, Investing, Psychology, Scarcity / Abundance, Social Capital, TED on 02 25th, 2011 | View Comments

For the background to this post, start with part 1. The follow up is here: part 3, part 4. In a subsequent post, I’ll talk about some lessons we’ve learned. In the mean time, what questions would you have, either as a prospective investor or investee in the above...

What Poker Taught Me About Life...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Happiness, Poker on 02 10th, 2011 | View Comments

“It depends…” There’s a difference between a good decision and a good outcome There’s a difference between being broke and having no money There’s a difference between a winning person and a winning player It’s all one long game The long run is longer than you...

Is Science Broken?...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Culture, Epistemology, Limits of Knowledge, Science, Science 2.0 on 02 8th, 2011 | View Comments

By this I mean just what you think I mean. Is science dysfunctional (i.e. functioning against its stated purpose) and could it be fixed? I will leave it to you to determine what science’s stated purpose is, though by any standardly accepted definition, I claim that science is broken. I’d like...

The AI-Box Experiment...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Artificial Intelligence, Cognition, Creativity, Incentives, Interventions, Limits of Knowledge, Psychology, Singularity on 02 8th, 2011 | View Comments

Several years ago I became aware of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s “AI-Box Experiment” in which he plays the role of a transhuman “artificial intelligence” and attempts (via dialogue only) to convince a human “gatekeeper” to let him out of a box in which he is being contained...

What is the Meaning of Life?...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Uncategorized on 02 5th, 2011 | View Comments

I’m doing some research for an upcoming talk I’m giving and I’d appreciate hearing your honest answer in the comments...

End of The Gene...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Complexity, Emergence, Evolution, Genetics, Invisible Etiology, Levels, Networks on 01 29th, 2011 | View Comments

Exhibit A: Reductio Ad Absurdum Exhibit B: Genetic Dark Matter “A fruit fly study suggests the whole-genome approach may be the way to go.” Exhibit C: The Genome vs The Gene Exhibit D: The Proteome vs The Genome “you need to look at the things that the genes are producing, and...

The New Scientific Enlightenment...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Causality, Cognition, Complexity, Creativity, Dualism, Emergence, Epistemology, Interconnectedness, Language, Limits of Knowledge, Mathematics, Non-linearity, Quantum, Science, Science 2.0, Singularity, Superorganism on 12 28th, 2010 | View Comments

There is a massive paradigm shift occurring: beliefs about the nature of scientific inquiry that have held for hundreds of years are being questioned. As laypeople, we see the symptoms all around us: climatology, economics, medicine, even fundamental physics; these domains (and more) have all become...

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