Violence on the Decline...
Posted by Rafe Furst in Culture, Epidemiology, Happiness, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Society on 07 25th, 2009 | View Comments
From Monday’s Washington Post: The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides. Full article is here, in which more...
Read More
Cancer "Progress" Report...
Posted by danielhorowitz in Alternative Institutions, Cancer, Cooperation, Epistemology, Evolution, Health, Interconnectedness, Medical Breakthroughs, Science, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy on 04 27th, 2009 | View Comments
Despite hundreds of billions of dollars appropriated for cancer research, as well as the efforts of thousands of the world’s best minds, progress in preventing or curing cancer has been almost non-existent. I find this unacceptable. We should be doing better. We need to be doing better. So what’s...
Read More
Alfred Hubler on Stabilizing CAS...
Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Autocatalysis, Causality, Economics, Interconnectedness, Interventions, Management, Markets, Networks, Non-linearity, Politics, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Socio-technical systems, Stability on 04 23rd, 2009 | View Comments
With his permission, I am posting an email thread between myself and Alfred Hubler.  I had contacted him on the recommendation of John Miller when Kevin and I were posting on the possibility of dampening boom-bust cycles in the financial markets through policy or other mechanisms.  Here’s what Hubler...
Read More
Victory Over "War on Terror"...
Posted by Rafe Furst in Government, Invisible Etiology, Media, Memes, Politics, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy on 03 30th, 2009 | View Comments
For those of who understand the power of self-fulfilling prophecy, there’s some good news on the foreign policy front.  The Obama administration (thanks to Hillary Clinton) will not be using the phrase “war on terror” anymore, as it is widely deemed to be “overly militaristic and...
Read More
Placebos Work Even If You Don't Bel...
Posted by Rafe Furst in Causality, Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, Psychology, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy on 03 16th, 2009 | View Comments
This is one of the most important medical “breakthroughs” in recent memory.  You should read the entire article, because it makes some subtle points, but the upshot is that placebo has (at least) two components, one that is triggered by conscious belief in a putative cure, and another that is...
Read More
Brilliant or Crazy? I Really Don't...
Posted by kevindick in Alternative Institutions, Economics, Government, Markets, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Stability on 03 1st, 2009 | View Comments
Apropos of Rafe’s last post on Complexity Economics, I ran across an economic stability proposal that is either brilliant or crazy. I both haven’t thought it over enough and am probably not qualified to determine which. ...
Read More
Why It's Important to be an Optimis...
Posted by Rafe Furst in Cognition, Epistemology, Limits of Knowledge, Psychology, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Society on 01 20th, 2009 | View Comments
The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true.  (James Branch Cabell) I am currently reading What Are You Optimistic About?, a collection of short essays by thought leaders in many different disciplines on the eponymous subject.  I’m also...
Read More
The Secret...
Posted by Rafe Furst in Autocatalysis, Causality, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Society on 11 2nd, 2007 | View Comments
Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last year, you know about the self-help phenomenon called The Secret. Perhaps you even bought the DVD or book or had (multiple) friends tell you about it, or even buy it for you as a gift. The Secret is not without its critics, of course. And the real...
Read More
Dangerous Media...
Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Causality, Government, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy on 04 29th, 2007 | View Comments
With the massacre at Virginia Tech weighing on everyone’s mind, we must look at the causal role that society, especially mass media (including the internet) plays in such tragedies. Much is discussed about the personal influences of mass-murderers, what “lead” them to do horrific deeds. ...
Read More